Integrating physiology into correlative models can alter projections of habitat suitability under climate change for a threatened amphibian

Rapid global change has increased interest in developing ways to identify suitable refugia for species of conservation concern. Correlative and mechanistic distribution models (SDMs) represent two approaches generate spatially-explicit estimates climate vulnerability. SDMs distributions using statistical associations between environmental variables presence data. In contrast, use physiological traits tolerances areas that meet the conditions required growth, survival reproduction. assume modeled influence directly or indirectly; however, mechanisms underlying these are rarely verified empirically. We compared habitat suitability predictions a correlative-only SDM, SDM correlative framework incorporated layers (‘hybrid models'). Our comparison focused on green salamanders Aneides aeneus, priority amphibian threatened by throughout their disjunct range. developed experiments measure thermal sensitivity resistance water loss (ri) metabolism. Under current conditions, correlative-only, hybrid predicted similar overlap suitability; extend into regions without but known harbor many lungless salamanders. future warming scenarios, depended scenario type. 42% reduction 260% increase area considered be depending scenario. SDMs, energetically declined with both scenarios was driven ri. study indicates produce discrepancies can arise do not occupy entire fundamental niche, which may hold consequences planning species.